We love theater; theater awards, not so much. So take our annual Tony Awards “ballot” (though we don’t actually get to vote) with a shaker of salt — and these caveats.
1. We’re not oddsmakers. In the “Will Win” category, we guess what the 769 actual voters will choose. Often they do a great job. Often we don’t.
2. We don’t mean to suggest that the people and productions listed in the “Should Win” category are more deserving than those in the “Will Win” category. OK, sometimes maybe a little more deserving. But usually they’re equally good options.
3. We admit that the “Should Have Been Nominated” category is weird. It salutes work that was eligible for nomination — but also, indicated by an asterisk, work that wasn’t. That includes non-Broadway productions, as long as they opened, like the legit nominees, after May 1, 2022.
4. We know there is no “Best Ensemble” category. But there should be.
JESSE GREEN, CHIEF THEATER CRITIC
Best Play
WILL WIN
“Leopoldstadt”
SHOULD WIN
“Between Riverside and Crazy”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
“A Case for the Existence of God”*
Best Musical
WILL WIN
“Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD WIN
“Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
“White Girl in Danger”*
Best Play Revival
WILL WIN
“A Doll’s House”
SHOULD WIN
“Topdog/Underdog”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
“Ohio State Murders”
“Cyrano de Bergerac”*
“Wedding Band”*
Best Musical Revival
WILL WIN
“Sweeney Todd”
SHOULD WIN
“Into the Woods”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
“Dancin’”
Best Actor in a Play
WILL WIN
Wendell Pierce, “Death of a Salesman”
SHOULD WIN
Stephen McKinley Henderson, “Between Riverside and Crazy”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Marcel Spears, “Fat Ham”
John David Washington, “The Piano Lesson”
James McAvoy, “Cyrano de Bergerac”*
Best Actress in a Play
WILL WIN
Jodie Comer, “Prima Facie”
SHOULD WIN
Jessica Chastain, “A Doll’s House”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Laura Linney, “Summer, 1976”
Linda Lavin, “You Will Get Sick”*
Brittany Bradford, “Wedding Band”*
Best Actor in a Musical
WILL WIN
Josh Groban, “Sweeney Todd”
SHOULD WIN
J. Harrison Ghee, “Some Like It Hot”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Jordan Donica, “Camelot”*
Best Actress in a Musical
WILL WIN
Victoria Clark, “Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD WIN
Victoria Clark
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Anna Uzele, “New York, New York”
Lea Michele, “Funny Girl”*
Best Featured Actor in a Play
WILL WIN
Samuel L. Jackson, “The Piano Lesson”
SHOULD WIN
Jordan E. Cooper, “Ain’t No Mo’”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
André De Shields, “Death of a Salesman”
Michael Patrick Thornton, “A Doll’s House”
Michael Potts, “The Piano Lesson”
Best Featured Actress in a Play
WILL WIN
Miriam Silverman, “The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window”
SHOULD WIN
Katy Sullivan, “Cost of Living”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Liza Colón-Zayas, “Between Riverside and Crazy”
Veanne Cox, “Wedding Band”*
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
WILL WIN
Alex Newell, “Shucked”
SHOULD WIN
Justin Cooley, “Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Kolton Krouse, “Dancin’”
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
WILL WIN
Bonnie Milligan, “Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD WIN
Bonnie Milligan
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Carolee Carmello, “Bad Cinderella”
Best Director of a Play
WILL WIN
Patrick Marber, “Leopoldstadt”
SHOULD WIN
Jamie Lloyd, “A Doll’s House”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Austin Pendleton, “Between Riverside and Crazy”
David Cromer, “A Case for the Existence of God”*
Jamie Lloyd, “Cyrano de Bergerac”*
Best Director of a Musical
WILL WIN
Casey Nicholaw, “Some Like It Hot”
SHOULD WIN
Lear deBessonet, “Into the Woods”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Susan Stroman, “New York, New York”
Best Book of a Musical
WILL WIN
Robert Horn, “Shucked”
SHOULD WIN
David Lindsay-Abaire, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Best Score
WILL WIN
Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, “Some Like It Hot”
SHOULD WIN
Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire, “Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
John Kander and Fred Ebb with Lin-Manuel Miranda, “New York, New York”
Best Choreography
WILL WIN
Casey Nicholaw, “Some Like It Hot”
SHOULD WIN
Susan Stroman, “New York, New York”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Darrell Grand Moultrie, “Fat Ham”
Andy Blankenbuehler, “Only Gold”*
Best Ensemble
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
“Dancin’”
“Leopoldstadt”
MAYA PHILLIPS, CRITIC-AT-LARGE
Best Play
WILL WIN
“Leopoldstadt”
SHOULD WIN
“Between Riverside and Crazy”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
“300 el x 50 el x 30 el”*
“A Case for the Existence of God”*
“The Patient Gloria”*
Best Musical
WILL WIN
“Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD WIN
“Some Like It Hot”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
“As You Like It”*
“The Appointment”*
Best Play Revival
WILL WIN
“A Doll’s House”
SHOULD WIN
“Topdog/Underdog”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
“Endgame”*
“Wedding Band”*
Best Musical Revival
WILL WIN
“Sweeney Todd”
SHOULD WIN
“Parade”
Best Actor in a Play
WILL WIN
Stephen McKinley Henderson, “Between Riverside and Crazy”
SHOULD WIN
Stephen McKinley Henderson
or
Corey Hawkins, “Topdog/Underdog”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Hiran Abeysekera, “Life of Pi”
Paul Bettany, “The Collaboration”
Jeremy Pope, “The Collaboration”
John David Washington, “The Piano Lesson”
Best Actress in a Play
WILL WIN
Audra McDonald, “Ohio State Murders”
SHOULD WIN
Jodie Comer, “Prima Facie”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Laura Linney, “Summer, 1976”
Brittany Bradford, “Wedding Band”*
Lia Williams, “Oresteia”*
Best Actor in a Musical
WILL WIN
Josh Groban, “Sweeney Todd”
SHOULD WIN
Ben Platt, “Parade”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Will Swenson, “A Beautiful Noise”
Best Actress in a Musical
WILL WIN
Victoria Clark, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Should Win
Victoria Clark
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Caroline Innerbichler, “Shucked”
Lea Michele, “Funny Girl”*
Crystal Lucas-Perry, “1776”
Anna Uzele, “New York, New York”
Best Featured Actor in a Play
WILL WIN
Brandon Uranowitz, “Leopoldstadt”
SHOULD WIN
Jordan E. Cooper, “Ain’t No Mo’”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Victor Almanzar, “Between Riverside and Crazy”
Chris Herbie Holland, “Fat Ham”
Best Featured Actress in a Play
WILL WIN
Miriam Silverman, “The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window”
SHOULD WIN
Kara Young, “Cost of Living”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Jamie Brewer, “Corsicana”*
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
WILL WIN
Justin Cooley, “Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD WIN
Alex Newell, “Shucked”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Kolton Krouse, “Dancin’”
Angel Sigala, “New York, New York”
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
WILL WIN
Betsy Wolfe, “& Juliet”
SHOULD WIN
Julia Lester, “Into the Woods”
or
Bonnie Milligan, “Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Robyn Hurder, “A Beautiful Noise”
Sara Porkalob, “1776”
Best Director of a Play
WILL WIN
Patrick Marber, “Leopoldstadt”
SHOULD WIN
Jamie Lloyd, “A Doll’s House”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
David Cromer, “A Case for the Existence of God”*
Carl Cofield, “Twelfth Night”*
Robert Icke, “Oresteia”*
Best Director of a Musical
WILL WIN
Casey Nicholaw, “Some Like It Hot”
SHOULD WIN
Casey Nicholaw
or
Jack O’Brien, “Shucked”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Susan Stroman, “New York, New York”
Laurie Woolery, “As You Like It”*
Best Book of a Musical
WILL WIN
David Lindsay-Abaire, “Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD WIN
Robert Horn, “Shucked”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Liza Birkenmeier, “____ 7th Grade”*
Best Score
WILL WIN
Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire, “Kimberly Akimbo”
SHOULD WIN
Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Arinzé Kene, Shiloh Coke and Adrian McLeod, “Misty”*
Best Choreography
WILL WIN
Casey Nicholaw, “Some Like It Hot”
SHOULD WIN
Susan Stroman, “New York, New York”
Should Have Been Nominated
Tiffany Rea-Fisher, “Twelfth Night”*
Best Ensemble
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
“Cost of Living”
“Fat Ham”
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